All's not as it appears, this tale has many twists -
but if I wasn't here documenting the story
would that mean that the plot did not exist?

— Peter Hammill

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Disasters Displaced More Than 26 Million People in 2023

Scientific American.com - Tue, 05/14/2024 - 4:45pm

Floods, wildfires, droughts and earthquakes forced more than 26 million people to leave their homes in 2023

Categories: Astronomy

Sun Erupts with Largest Flare of This Solar Cycle, but Auroras Unlikely to Follow

Scientific American.com - Tue, 05/14/2024 - 4:15pm

The same massive sunspot cluster that gave Earth multiple nights of stunning aurora displays has now produced the largest flare of the current solar cycle

Categories: Astronomy

Big decision! Curiosity rover keeps following possible Mars river remnant

Space.com - Tue, 05/14/2024 - 4:00pm
After much debate, the Curiosity Mars rover team decided to continue following an intriguing channel rather than send the robot on an off-road detour.
Categories: Astronomy

Eleasa Kim: Pioneering CLDP Payload Operations and Cultural Integration

NASA - Breaking News - Tue, 05/14/2024 - 3:20pm

Eleasa Kim, stationed at NASA’s Marshall Space Flight Center, leads the Commercial Low Earth Orbit Development Program (CLDP) payload operations at Johnson Space Center, with 18 years of mission support under her belt. Her roles have included biomedical engineer flight controller, payload safety engineer for Artemis I, planning and analysis branch operations discipline lead, and glovebox integration engineer, with each enriching her understanding of engineering, safety, and leadership. 

Kim is currently working to ensure a smooth transition to commercial space operations for the science being conducted in microgravity for the benefit of humanity. 

Eleasa Kim tests eye imaging hardware for the astronauts to use aboard the International Space Station.

Kim evaluates plans and documentation for commercial space stations, prepares materials for research operations, and devises strategies to enhance partner success and sustain the low Earth orbit economy. “I love the trust and support we are provided to brainstorm and offer recommendations for transitioning space station operations to commercial platforms,” she said.  

As the lead of the Human Exploration and Development Office’s (HEDO) Unity Team at Marshall, Kim is championing a culture of safety and inclusivity while leading a group of 15 people that represent every office and branch within HEDO. Kim and her team are tackling complex topics to enhance organizational culture. “We are promoting inclusion of everyone and more education and communication on topics that are not easy to talk about,” she said. 

NASA’s Human Exploration and Development Office (HEDO) 2024 Unity Team at their kickoff meeting. From left: Sheena Hawthorne, Eleasa Kim, Glenn Medina, Johnathan Carlson, Jennifer Christopher, Jenni Deylius, Carol Reynolds, Brooke Thornton, Sherresa Lockett, April Hargrave, Phillippia Simmons, DeAnna Whitehead, Tishawn Webb, Stacey Kelley, Ginger Flores, Wendy Cruit, and Luke Bingaman.

“A large part of my identity is recognizing that people come first,” said Kim. “I take the opportunities to connect with and meet people where they are. I try to figure out how I can add value.” 

Although it is tough for her to pick her favorite project or program she has worked on at NASA, one of her most cherished experiences was during her tenure as an International Space Station biomedical engineer, where she completed a parabolic flight to test vital crew health support hardware. “My favorite part was learning what it meant to have a family at work that I trusted and could count on,” she said.  

Eleasa Kim performs inverted CPR in a zero-gravity parabolic flight.

In her other previous roles, she most enjoyed learning about science experiments as a payloads planner and playing a critical role in their success. As a payload safety engineer for Artemis I, she loved being able to deep dive into complex and specific problems and learn about safety risk and probability. As the planning and analysis branch operations discipline lead at Marshall, Kim says she loved learning about analyzing performance metrics, reporting, and providing leadership to multiple teams. 

Kim emphasizes the importance of staying curious and adaptable, recognizing that each role and team presents unique cultural and technical challenges. She says, “When faced with a challenge, I can overcome a lot more than I think by asking myself, ‘How can I do this?’”  

Eleasa Kim served as the International Space Station lead biomedical engineer for Space Shuttle mission STS-119. Credit: NASA/Devin Boldt

She has supported real-time mission operations, pre-mission planning, safety, engineering, and project management roles. “It takes time to get oriented each time I move into a team,” she said. “While challenging, it is also very exciting and motivating for me because I’m passionate about knowing people and learning new things.” 

Kim believes that NASA is actively driving change, emphasizing the importance of consistent communication from every individual. This approach, reminiscent of “boots on the ground,” is reshaping the agency’s culture from its foundation. “We can and are changing the culture from the bottom up, and NASA is providing the enabling function of management support,” she said. “We need to provide safe spaces for people to be vulnerable and help ensure everyone feels safe to contribute.”  

Eleasa Kim during a ski trip with her two children.

Kim’s cultural heritage is rooted in South Korea, where her parents originated before emigrating to the United States. Raised in America, she has a profound appreciation for Korean culture, especially its cuisine, and enjoys cooking traditional meals and sharing them with friends and colleagues. 

Kim says she is most proud of being a mother of two kind, beautiful, sharp, strong-willed, and passionate girls. 

She hopes to pass on to the next generation the inspiration to do great things for all of humanity, as did those who came before us. “I am excited to see what commercial and international growth will bring in the next decade.” 

Categories: NASA

Gravitational Lenses Could Pin Down Black Hole Mergers with Unprecedented Accuracy

Universe Today - Tue, 05/14/2024 - 3:09pm

Gravitational wave astronomy has been one of the hottest new types of astronomy ever since the LIGO consortium officially detected the first gravitational wave (GW) back in 2016. Astronomers were excited about the number of new questions that could be answered using this sensing technique that had never been considered before. But a lot of the nuance of the GWs that LIGO and other detectors have found in the 90 gravitational wave candidates they have found since 2016 is lost. 

Researchers have a hard time determining which galaxy a gravitational wave comes from. But now, a new paper from researchers in the Netherlands has a strategy and developed some simulations that could help narrow down the search for the birthplace of GWs. To do so, they use another darling of astronomers everywhere—gravitational lensing.

Importantly, GWs are thought to be caused by merging black holes. These catastrophic events literally distort space-time to the point where their merger causes ripples in gravity itself. However, those signals are extraordinarily faint when they reach us—and they are often coming from billions of light-years away. 

Detectors like LIGO are explicitly designed to search for those signals, but it’s still tough to get a strong signal-to-noise ratio. Therefore, they’re also not particularly good at detailing where a particular GW signal comes from. They can generally say, “It came from that patch of sky over there,” but since “that patch of sky” could contain billions of galaxies, that doesn’t do much to narrow it down.

Fraser discusses the crazy physics that happen when black holes run into each other.

But astronomers lose a lot of context regarding what a GW can tell them about its originating galaxy if they don’t know what galaxy it came from. That’s where gravitational lensing comes in.

Gravitational lenses are a physical phenomenon whereby the signal (in most cases light) coming from a very faraway object is warped by the mass of an object that lies between the further object and us here on Earth. They’re responsible for creating “Einstein Rings,” some of the most spectacular astronomical images.

Light is not the only thing that can be affected by mass, though—gravitational waves can, too. Therefore, it is at least possible that gravitational waves themselves could be warped by the mass of an object between it and Earth. If astronomers are able to detect that warping, they can also tell which specific galaxy in an area of the sky the GW sign is coming from. 

Once astronomers can track down the precise galaxy, creating a gravitational wave, the sky is (not) the limit. They can narrow down all sorts of characteristics not only of the wave-generating galaxy itself but also of the galaxy in front of it, creating the lens. But how exactly should astronomers go about doing this work?

Fraser celebrates the workhorses of the GW detector stable – LIGO and VIRGO – coming back online after upgrades.

That is the focus of the new paper from Ewoud Wempe, a PhD student at the University of Groningen, and their co-authors. The paper details several simulations that attempt to narrow down the origin of a lensed gravitational wave. In particular, they use a technique similar to the triangulation that cell phones use to determine where exactly they are in relation to GPS satellites. 

Using this technique can prove fruitful in the future, as the authors believe there are as many as 215,000 potential GW lensed candidates that would be detectable in data sets from the next generation of GW detectors. While those are still coming online, the theoretical and modeling worlds remain hard at work trying to figure out what kind of data would be expected for different physical realities of this newest type of astronomical observation.

Learn More:
Wempe et al. – On the detection and precise localization of merging black holes events through strong gravitational lensing
UT – After Decades of Observations, Astronomers have Finally Sensed the Pervasive Background Hum of Merging Supermassive Black Holes
UT – A Neutron Star Merged with a Surprisingly Light Black Hole
UT – When Black Holes Merge, They’ll Ring Like a Bell

Lead Image:
Example of a gravitational lens.
Credit – Hubble Telescope / NASA / ESA

The post Gravitational Lenses Could Pin Down Black Hole Mergers with Unprecedented Accuracy appeared first on Universe Today.

Categories: Astronomy

Blue Origin targeting May 19 for 1st crewed spaceflight since 2022

Space.com - Tue, 05/14/2024 - 3:00pm
Blue Origin is targeting Sunday (May 19) for the six-person NS-25, the company's first crewed spaceflight since August 2022.
Categories: Astronomy

TRAPPIST-1 Outer Planets Likely Have Water

Universe Today - Tue, 05/14/2024 - 2:52pm

The TRAPPIST-1 solar system generated a swell of interest when it was observed several years ago. In 2016, astronomers using the Transiting Planets and Planetesimals Small Telescope (TRAPPIST) at La Silla Observatory in Chile detected two rocky planets orbiting the red dwarf star, which took the name TRAPPIST-1. Then, in 2017, a deeper analysis found another five rocky planets.

It was a remarkable discovery, especially because up to four of them could be the right distance from the star to have liquid water.

The TRAPPIST-1 system still gets a lot of scientific attention. Potential Earth-like planets in a star’s habitable zone are like magnets for planetary scientists.

Finding seven of them in one system is a unique scientific opportunity to examine all kinds of interlinked questions about exoplanet habitability. TRAPPIST-1 is a red dwarf, and one of the most prominent questions about exoplanet habitability concerns red dwarfs (M dwarfs.) Do these stars and their powerful flares drive the atmospheres away from their planets?

New research in the Planetary Science Journal examines atmospheric escape on the TRAPPIST-1 planets. Its title is “The Implications of Thermal Hydrodynamic Atmospheric Escape on the TRAPPIST-1 Planets.” Megan Gialluca, a graduate student in the Department of Astronomy and Astrobiology Program at the University of Washington, is the lead author.

Most stars in the Milky Way are M dwarfs. As the TRAPPIST-1 makes clear, they can host many terrestrial planets. Large, Jupiter-size planets are comparatively rare around these types of stars.

artist concepts of the seven planets of TRAPPIST-1 with their orbital periods, distances from their star, radii and masses as compared to those of Earth. Credit: NASA/JPL

It’s a distinct possibility that most terrestrial planets are in orbit around M dwarfs.

But M dwarf flaring is a known issue. Though M dwarfs are far less massive than our Sun, their flares are way more energetic than anything that comes from the Sun. Some M dwarf flares can double the star’s brightness in only minutes.

Another problem is tidal locking. Since M dwarfs emit less energy, their habitable zones are much closer than the zones around a main sequence star like our Sun. That means potentially habitable planets are much more likely to be tidally locked to their stars.

That creates a whole host of obstacles to habitability. One side of the planet would bear the brunt of the flaring and be warmed, while the other side would be perpetually dark and cold. If there’s an atmosphere, there could be extremely powerful winds.

“As M dwarfs are the most common stars in our local stellar neighbourhood, whether their planetary systems can harbour life is a key question in astrobiology that may be amenable to observational tests in the near term,” the authors write. “Terrestrial planetary targets of interest for atmospheric characterization with M dwarf hosts may be accessible with the JWST,” they explain. They also point out that future large ground-based telescopes like the European Extremely Large Telescope and the Giant Magellan Telescope could help, too, but they’re years away from being operational.

This is an artist’s impression of the TRAPPIST-1 system, showing all seven planets. Image Credit: NASA

Red dwarfs and their planets are easier to observe than other stars and their planets. Red dwarfs are small and dim, meaning their light doesn’t drown out planets as much as other main-sequence stars do. But despite their lower luminosity and small size, they present challenges to habitability.

M dwarfs have a longer pre-main-sequence phase than other stars and are at their brightest during this time. Once they’re on the main sequence, they have heightened stellar activity compared to stars like our Sun. These factors can both drive atmospheres away from nearby planets. Even without flaring, the closest planet to TRAPPIST-1 (T-1 hereafter) receives four times more radiation than Earth.

“In addition to luminosity evolution, heightened stellar activity also increases the stellar XUV of M dwarf stars, which enhances atmospheric loss,” the authors write. This can also make it difficult to understand the spectra from planetary atmospheres by creating false positives of biosignatures. Exoplanets around M dwarfs are expected to have thick atmospheres dominated by abiotic oxygen.

Despite the challenges, the T-1 system is a great opportunity to study M dwarfs, atmospheric escape, and rocky planet habitability. “TRAPPIST-1 is a high-priority target for JWST General and Guaranteed Time Observations,” the authors write. The JWST has observed parts of the T-1 system, and that data is part of this work.

In this work, the researchers simulated early atmospheres for each of the TRAPPIST-1 (T-1 hereafter) planets, including different initial water amounts expressed in Terrestrial Oceans (TO.) They also modelled different amounts of stellar radiation over time. Their simulations used the most recent data for the T-1 planets and used a variety of different planetary evolution tracks.

In this research, the authors took into account the predicted present-day water content for each of the outer planets and then worked backwards to understand their initial water content. This figure shows “The likelihood of each initial water content (in TO) needed to reproduce the predicted present-day water contents for each of the outer planets,” the authors write. The four outer planets would’ve started out with enormous amounts of water compared to Earth. Image Credit: Gialluca et al. 2024.

The results are not good, especially for the planets closest to the red dwarf.

“We find the interior planets T1-b, c, and d are likely desiccated for all but the largest initial water contents (>60, 50, and 30 TO, respectively) and are at the greatest risk of complete atmospheric loss due to their proximity to the host star,” the researchers explain. However, depending on their initial TO, they could retain significant oxygen. That oxygen could be a false positive for biosignatures.

The outer planets fare a little better. They could retain some of their water unless their initial water was low at about 1 TO. “We find T1-e, f, g, and h lose, at most, approximately 8.0, 4.8, 3.4, and 0.8 TO, respectively,” they write. These outer planets probably have more oxygen than the inner planets, too. Since T1-e, f, and g are in the star’s habitable zone, it’s an intriguing result.

T-1c is of particular interest because, in their simulations, it retains the most atmospheric oxygen regardless of whether the initial TO was high or low.

This artist’s illustration shows what the hot rocky exoplanet TRAPPIST-1 c could look like. Image Credit: By NASA, ESA, CSA, Joseph Olmsted (STScI) – https://webbtelescope.org/contents/media/images/2023/125/01H2TJJF981PWQK9YT0VGH2HPV, Public Domain, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=133303919

The potential habitability of T-1 planets is an important question in exoplanet science. The type of star, the number of rocky planets, and the ease of observation all place it at the top of the list of observational targets. We’ll never really understand exoplanet habitability if we can’t understand this system. The only way to understand it better is to observe it more thoroughly.

“These conclusions motivate follow-up observations to search for the presence of water vapour or oxygen on T1-c and future observations of the outer planets in the TRAPPIST-1 system, which may possess substantial water,” the authors write in their conclusion.

The post TRAPPIST-1 Outer Planets Likely Have Water appeared first on Universe Today.

Categories: Astronomy

Car-size asteroid gives Earth a close shave in near-miss flyby (video, photo)

Space.com - Tue, 05/14/2024 - 2:45pm
A car-sized asteroid flew very close to Earth on Tuesday morning (May 14), just two days after being discovered.
Categories: Astronomy

Explore the Star Clusters of Centaurus

Sky & Telescope Magazine - Tue, 05/14/2024 - 2:26pm

This large constellation abounds in deep-sky delights, including many fine open star clusters.

The post Explore the Star Clusters of Centaurus appeared first on Sky & Telescope.

Categories: Astronomy

Sun unleashes massive X8.7 solar flare, biggest of current cycle, from super-active monster sunspot (video)

Space.com - Tue, 05/14/2024 - 2:17pm
A monster sunspot on the sun's surface just won't quit, erupting yet again this week with a whopping X8.7-class solar flare on Tuesday (May 14).
Categories: Astronomy

Jupiter's mysterious moon Amalthea spied crossing the Great Red Spot (photo)

Space.com - Tue, 05/14/2024 - 1:59pm
NASA's Juno spacecraft has spotted the elusive fifth moon of Jupiter transiting the giant planet's Great Red Spot, giving astronomers a rare view of this small but intriguing natural satellite.
Categories: Astronomy

Mission Manager Update: VIPER Rover Approved to Move into Environmental Testing!

NASA - Breaking News - Tue, 05/14/2024 - 1:55pm
Engineers test the VIPER rover’s wheel movement and rotation in a clean room at NASA’s Johnson Space Center in Houston.NASA/Helen Arase Vargas

While NASA’s VIPER team has been focused on building the flight rover that will go to the South Pole of the Moon, the team has also been making preparations for environmental testing of the rover. 

In April, the VIPER team passed a System Test Readiness Review, exploring the readiness of the facilities, procedures, and staff to move into stress-testing the VIPER rover.

These environmental tests are important because they force our rover to experience the conditions it will see during launch, landing, and in the thermal environment of operating at the lunar South Pole. Specifically, acoustic testing will simulate the harsh, vibrational “rock concert” experience of launch, while thermal-vacuum testing will expose VIPER to the hottest and coldest temperatures it will see during the mission, all while operating in the vacuum of space. It’s a tough business, but we have to make sure we’re up for it.

Thanks to this team for the hard efforts to get to this important phase in mission readiness!

Go VIPER!

– Dan Andrews, VIPER Project Manager

Categories: NASA

Sols 4184-4185: Look Near! Look Far!

NASA - Breaking News - Tue, 05/14/2024 - 1:50pm

3 min read

Sols 4184-4185: Look Near! Look Far! This image was taken by Left Navigation Camera onboard NASA’s Mars rover Curiosity on Sol 4183 (2024-05-13 02:30:29 UTC). NASA/JPL-Caltech

Earth planning date: Monday, May 13, 2024

Today I’ve chosen to show off a spectacular image of ‘Texoli butte,’ but I’m rather biased in my assessment of its beauty because I am currently part of the team studying it. What continues to marvel me is Curiosity’s incredible suite of instruments that can not only help us to assess the rocks around us, but can be used to see very high detail of rocks hundreds of meters away – like Texoli butte – and today we took advantage of those superpowers!

ChemCam is looking far away for us over the next 2 sols, starting with a long-distance RMI of Texoli butte. On the second sol, we are looking at a structure further up Gediz Vallis channel that we won’t be driving up to named ‘Milestone Peak.’ The long-distance observations are really useful in ensuring we can see everything we need to, even if we don’t drive super close. We then take a glimpse between the buttes of Gediz Vallis and above the sulfate-bearing unit we are currently driving in to the yardang unit for the final long-distance RMI of this plan. We can also use Curiosity’s super vision to look at the atmosphere! Over the next 2 sols, Mastcam will measure the amount of dust in the atmosphere in a tau measurement, and Navcam will take a suprahorizon movie as well as being on the lookout for dust devils.

As well as really far away, Curiosity is a specialist at looking and taking measurements of rocks right in front of us. Curiosity will be taking APXS measurements and MAHLI observations on two nearby rocks named ‘Tenaya Lake’ and ‘Buck Lake.’ On the same rock as Buck Lake, ChemCam will be taking a LIBS measurement on a target named ‘Illilouette Falls,’ and another rock a little further away called ‘Redwood Canyon,’ as well as a passive observation on a dark-toned rock named ‘Cox Col.’ Mastcam will document these observations, as well as looking back at the south side of Pinnacle Ridge we have just driven around. In total, Mastcam will spend 1 hour documenting the rocks here at the Gediz Vallis Ridge, including a 15×3 mosaic during an early morning wake-up call at 07:30 to take advantage of the morning light on Mars.

The science team did a wonderful job today documenting all things near and far in this beautiful workspace. As the Keeper of the Plan for the Geology and Mineralogy theme group today, I really enjoyed helping to make this plan a reality, and I can’t wait to see all the fantastic images and data we get back from Mars.

Written by Emma Harris, Graduate Student at Natural History Museum

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May 14, 2024

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Categories: NASA

NASA Tests Technology, Practices Artemis Moonwalks in Arizona Desert

NASA - Breaking News - Tue, 05/14/2024 - 1:26pm
NASA astronauts Kate Rubins and Andre Douglas push a tool cart loaded with lunar tools through the San Francisco Volcanic Field north of Flagstaff, Arizona, as they practice moonwalking operations for Artemis III. NASA/Josh Valcarcel

To prepare for exploring the Moon during NASA’s Artemis campaign, the agency is conducting a week-long field test in the lunar-like landscape of San Francisco Volcanic Field near Flagstaff, Arizona to practice moonwalk scenarios.

NASA astronauts Kate Rubins and Andre Douglas are serving as the crewmembers and wearing mockup spacesuit systems as they traverse through the desert, completing a variety of technology demonstrations, hardware checkouts and Artemis science-related operations. 

During the test, two integrated teams will work together as they practice end-to-end lunar operations. The field team consists of astronauts, NASA engineers, and field experts in the Arizona desert conducting the simulated moonwalks, while a team of flight controllers and scientists at NASA’s Johnson Space Center in Houston monitor and guide their activities.

NASA astronaut Kate Rubins observes a geology sample she collected during a simulated moonwalk. NASA/Josh Valcarcel

“Field tests play a critical role in helping us test all of the systems, hardware, and technology we’ll need to conduct successful lunar operations during Artemis missions,” said Barbara Janoiko, director for the field test at Johnson. “Our engineering and science teams have worked together seamlessly to ensure we are prepared every step of the way for when astronauts step foot on the Moon again.”   

The test consists of four simulated moonwalks that follow operations planned for Artemis III and beyond, as well as six advanced technology runs. During the advanced runs, teams will demonstrate technology that may be used for future Artemis missions, such as display and navigation data stream capabilities in the form of a heads-up display using augmented reality or lighting beacons that could help guide crew back to the lander. 

Ahead of the field test, the science team at Johnson that was competitively selected and tasked with developing the science objectives for the field test, followed a planning process designed for Artemis missions. Their preparation included generating geologic maps, a list of science questions, and prioritized moonwalk locations for both the primary and back-up “landing sites” for the test. 

“During Artemis III, the astronauts will be our science operators on the lunar surface with an entire science team supporting them from here on Earth,” said Cherie Achilles, science officer for the test at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland. “This simulation gives us an opportunity to practice conducting geology from afar in real time.” 

NASA astronaut Andre Douglas collects soil samples during the first in a series of four simulated moonwalks in Arizona. NASA/Josh Valcarcel

The test will evaluate gaps and challenges associated with lunar South Pole operations, including data collection and communications between the flight control team and science team in Houston for rapid decision-making protocols. 

At the conclusion of each simulated moonwalk, the science team, flight control team, crewmembers, and field experts will come together to discuss and record lessons learned. NASA will take these lessons and apply them to operations for NASA’s Artemis missions, commercial vendor development, and other technology development. 

This field test is the fifth in the series conducted by the Joint Extravehicular Activity and Human Surface Mobility Test Team led out of Johnson. This test expands on previous field tests the team has performed and is the highest fidelity Artemis moonwalk mission simulation to date. 

NASA uses field tests to simulate missions to prepare for deep space destinations. The Arizona desert has been a training ground for lunar exploration since the Apollo era because of the many similarities to the lunar terrain, including craters, faults and volcanic features. 

Through Artemis, NASA will land the first woman, the first person of color, and its first international partner astronaut on the Moon, paving the way for long-term lunar exploration and serving as a steppingstone for astronaut missions to Mars. 

Learn more about NASA’s Extravehicular Activity and Human Surface Mobility Program:

https://www.nasa.gov/extravehicular-activity-and-human-surface-mobility/

Categories: NASA

New York Times best-selling author revisits 1986 space shuttle tragedy in 'Challenger' (interview)

Space.com - Tue, 05/14/2024 - 1:00pm
Adam Higginbotham was out with his first book when he got the idea. "People often asked me whether I remembered where I was when I heard the news about Chernobyl." He didn't, but recalled Challenger.
Categories: Astronomy

Helium leak delays Boeing's 1st Starliner astronaut launch to May 21

Space.com - Tue, 05/14/2024 - 12:59pm
The first crewed mission of Boeing's Starliner capsule has been pushed back by four days to May 21, due to a helium leak in its service module.
Categories: Astronomy

How ‘Glowing’ Plants Could Help Scientists Predict Flash Drought

NASA - Breaking News - Tue, 05/14/2024 - 12:55pm

5 min read

Preparations for Next Moonwalk Simulations Underway (and Underwater) In a field in western Kentucky, a machine sprays cover crops to prepare for planting season. NASA scientists are looking to space-based tools to help forecast fast, stealthy droughts responsible for severe agricultural losses in recent years.U.S. Department of Agriculture/Justin Pius

An unusual boost in plant productivity can foreshadow severe soil water loss. NASA satellites are following the clues.

Flaring up rapidly and with little warning, the drought that gripped much of the United States in the summer of 2012 was one of the most extensive the country had seen since the yearslong Dust Bowl of the 1930s. The “flash drought,” stoked by extreme heat that baked the moisture from soil and plants, led to widespread crop failure and economic losses costing more than $30 billion.

While archetypal droughts may develop over seasons, flash droughts are marked by rapid drying. They can take hold within weeks and are tough to predict. In a recent study, a team led by scientists from NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Southern California was able to detect signs of flash droughts up to three months before onset. In the future, such advance notice could aid mitigation efforts.

How did they do it? By following the glow.

A Signal Seen From Space

During photosynthesis, when a plant absorbs sunlight to convert carbon dioxide and water into food, its chlorophyll will “leak” some unused photons. This faint glow is called solar-induced fluorescence, or SIF. The stronger the fluorescence, the more carbon dioxide a plant is taking from the atmosphere to power its growth.

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Growing plants emit a form of light detectable by NASA satellites orbiting hundreds of miles above Earth. Parts of North America appear to glimmer in this visualization, depicting an average year. Gray indicates regions with little or no fluorescence; red, pink, and white indicate high fluorescence.NASA’s Scientific Visualization Studio

While the glow is invisible to the naked eye, it can be detected by instruments aboard satellites such as NASA’s Orbiting Carbon Obsevatory-2 (OCO-2). Launched in 2014, OCO-2 has observed the U.S. Midwest aglow during the growing season.

The researchers compared years of fluorescence data to an inventory of flash droughts that struck the U.S. between May and July from 2015 to 2020. They found a domino effect: In the weeks and months leading up to a flash drought, vegetation initially thrived as conditions turned warm and dry. The flourishing plants emitted an unusually strong fluorescence signal for the time of year.

But by gradually drawing down the water supply in the soil, the plants created a risk. When extreme temperatures hit, the already low moisture levels plummeted, and flash drought developed within days.

The team correlated the fluorescence measurements with moisture data from NASA’s SMAP satellite. Short for Soil Moisture Active Passive, SMAP tracks changes in soil water by measuring the intensity of natural microwave emissions from Earth’s surface.

The scientists found that the unusual fluorescence pattern correlated extremely well with soil moisture losses in the six to 12 weeks before a flash drought. A consistent pattern emerged across diverse landscapes, from the temperate forests of the Eastern U.S. to the Great Plains and Western shrublands.

For this reason, plant fluorescence “shows promise as a reliable early warning indicator of flash drought with enough lead time to take action,” said Nicholas Parazoo, an Earth scientist at JPL and lead author of the recent study.

Jordan Gerth, a scientist with the National Weather Service Office of Observations who was not involved in the study, said he was pleased to see work on flash droughts, given our changing climate. He noted that agriculture benefits from predictability whenever possible.

While early warning can’t eliminate the impacts of flash droughts, Gerth said, “farmers and ranchers with advanced operations can better use water for irrigation to reduce crop impacts, avoid planting crops that are likely to fail, or plant a different type of crop to achieve the most ideal yield if they have weeks to months of lead time.”

Tracking Carbon Emissions

In addition to trying to predict flash droughts, the scientists wanted to understand how these impact carbon emissions.

By converting carbon dioxide into food during photosynthesis, plants and trees are carbon “sinks,” absorbing more CO2 from the atmosphere than they release. Many kinds of ecosystems, including farmlands, play a role in the carbon cycle — the constant exchange of carbon atoms between the land, atmosphere, and ocean.

The scientists used carbon dioxide measurements from the OCO-2 satellite, along with advanced computer models, to track carbon uptake by vegetation before and after flash droughts. Heat-stressed plants absorb less CO2 from the atmosphere, so the researchers expected to find more free carbon. What they found instead was a balancing act.  

Warm temperatures prior to the onset of flash drought tempted plants to increase their carbon uptake compared to normal conditions. This anomalous uptake was, on average, sufficient to fully offset decreases in carbon uptake due to the hot conditions that ensued. The surprising finding could help improve carbon cycle model predictions.

Celebrating its 10th year in orbit this summer, the OCO-2 satellite maps natural and human-made carbon dioxide concentrations and vegetation fluorescence using three camera-like spectrometers tuned to detect the unique light signature of CO2. They measure the gas indirectly by tracking how much reflected sunlight it absorbs in a given column of air.

The OCO-2 project and SMAP are managed by JPL. Caltech manages JPL for NASA. To read more about them, go to:

https://ocov2.jpl.nasa.gov/

and

https://smap.jpl.nasa.gov

News Media Contacts

Jane J. Lee / Andrew Wang
Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, Calif.
818-354-0307 / 626-379-6874
jane.j.lee@jpl.nasa.gov / andrew.wang@jpl.nasa.gov

Written by Sally Younger

2024-065

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