Astronomy

In a reversal, the Food and Drug Administration has removed black box warnings on hormone replacement therapies for menopause

It is arguable that humanity now has the technological ability to live on Mars. It would be done at enormous expense and sacrifice, and there are some tricky problems that we haven’t solved yet. Although we could live on Mars, should we? There is a famous quote from Jurassic Park: “Your scientists were so preoccupied with whether or not they could, they didn’t stop to think if they should.” This concept is played out across the sciences, and in planetary exploration, it requires us to ask, all because we can launch humans toward Mars, should we?

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Show Notes

• Framing
• Practical & environmental costs (Earth-side)
• Mission risks & human health
• Life on Mars: daily reality
• Reproduction & generational ethics
• Planetary protection & science first
• Timeframe & infrastructure argument

Transcript

[Fraser Cain]
Astronomy Cast, Episode 770, The Ethics of Living on Mars. Welcome to Astronomy Cast, our weekly facts-based journey through the cosmos, where we help you understand not only what we know, but how we know what we know. I’m Fraser Cain, I’m the publisher of Universe Today.

With me as always is Dr. Pamela Gay, a senior scientist for the Planetary Science Institute and the director of CosmoQuest. Hey Pamela, how you doing?

[Dr. Pamela Gay]
It is the most amazing fall day outside. It looks like a Hallmark special with cloudless blue skies, orange and red trees. I just want to go take photos during the golden hour, which is far too early because stupid daylight, time shifted.

[Fraser Cain]
Winter might have been cancelled here. Really? All of my fruit trees still have all of their leaves, still putting on new growth.

It is into November now. Yeah, they have not gotten the message. It has been surprisingly warm, but eventually I’m sure it’ll cool down.

Now I got a new piece of kit, new piece of gear, which I just want to talk about.

[Dr. Pamela Gay]
You did? What did you get?

[Fraser Cain]
I got a eight-inch Dobsonian telescope.

[Dr. Pamela Gay]
Those are the bestest.

[Fraser Cain]
I know, they are the bestest. So I was talking to a patron actually. They were telling me how they were on Facebook Marketplace and they bought a telescope for reasonably inexpensive.

I was like, oh, I should see what prices are like for Facebook Marketplace for telescopes. Just get a sense of the lay of the land out there. Boom, there’s a Skywatcher eight-inch Dobsonian telescope, which is like the perfect telescope.

It is not too small and it’s also not too big. The price was really reasonable, about less than half, maybe a third price of what you pay if you bought it new and shipping and taxes and all that kind of stuff. I was like, yeah, okay, I got to do this.

So I reached out to the seller and bought the telescope and brought it home. And of course we’ve had clouds. I got one quick look at the moon and where you go blind in one eye because it’s so bright.

And I was able to look at Andromeda and I was able to look at the double cluster in Perseus. And so a few things quickly before the clouds have set in, but what a great telescope. So just a reminder, every now and then if you’ve got sort of a telescope on your mind, just check and see what’s going on at Facebook Marketplace and see if someone is selling your dream telescope.

And so now I feel like with the Seastar and the Dobsonian, I have the perfect pair. I can look at Saturn and it’ll look glorious and I can see the bands across Jupiter and the moons, or I can take long exposure images of various nebulae and so on and so forth. So I think that’s the perfect pair now, Dobsonian with one of these new automated telescopes.

[Dr. Pamela Gay]
That is excellent.

[Fraser Cain]
Yeah. So it is arguable that humanity now has the technological ability to live on Mars. It would be done at enormous expense and sacrifice. And there are some tricky problems that we haven’t solved yet, although we could live on Mars.

Should we? All right, Pamela. So this is interesting because I think if there was one aspect of space exploration, of astronomy, of just like my entire career journey, my entire existence as a human being, something that I have evolved my thinking on more than almost any other aspect is human space exploration.

And my guess is that you have as well.

[Dr. Pamela Gay]
Yeah.

[Fraser Cain]
So let’s kind of like go back historically and think about sort of where we were, maybe even before we started AstronomyCast, like where were you with your sort of like becoming interested and excited in human space exploration and humanity living off planet?

[Dr. Pamela Gay]
So the X-Prizes that it was the Ansari X-Prize back when we were starting the show was looking to start the commercial space race with we’re going to accomplish multiple launches in a very short period of time. And this is going to start proving that it doesn’t have to be governments taking me to space. And my take was NASA has so few resources that we need to leverage NASA and governmental funds to do science, to send out the probes, to send out the rovers and the explorers and to not keep doing human exploration, but to leverage human beings as thumbs that can build things and fix things in space.

And I was like, we’ll just leave it to the commercial space agencies to go and take humans on the next step. Like the West Indian Trading Company took merchants on the next step once the government funded voyage of Columbus had found the new world. What I failed to think through in my ignorance was the trading companies led to all sorts of terrible working conditions, led to lots of pillaging of the ecosystem.

And I didn’t necessarily advance civilization. And I fear I was naive in what I thought. I foresaw commercial spaces like ecotourism, and it is absolutely not going to be that.

[Fraser Cain]
So for me, I was, you know, like, I think I grew up on a diet of science fiction. And so just a mainstay of science fiction is that humans are going to live on other planets, that this is just what we’re going to do. When you read the Pine Lines, you read all of the original science fiction books, they talk about humanity being across the solar system.

And it really kind of solidified for me, I read Red Mars, Green Mars, Blue Mars, not necessarily in that order. And that, you know, this was like the practical nitty gritty reality of living on Mars and humanity setting up its existence on Mars. And then that coincided with The Case for Mars by Robert Zubrin.

And then also, I was reading Pale Blue Dot by Carl Sagan. And together, those sort of books made this really compelling case that humanity actually has the technological capability now to live on Mars, we could do it, it’ll only cost about $10 billion. But with a live off the land approach, let’s get cracking.

And I was so inspired that I actually started Universe Today, that I wanted to play a part in sort of cataloging humanities, sort of moving out into space and participating in this dream. And it felt inevitable, and it felt right, and it felt like the right thing to do. And there was a lot of people who would argue with me and go like, it’s crazy, let’s just send robots to Mars.

That’s ridiculous. We don’t need to send humans. I’m like, yeah, but that’s not the point.

The point is not about the science. The point is about us living on another world, that this is our future, that we can explore out into the cosmos. And it starts with us living on Mars.

Once we lived on Mars, then we’ll be living on the cloud tops of Venus and the moon base and asteroids. And we will do asteroid mining, and we will eventually begin to move out to other star systems and so on and so forth, right? And then reality, just day after day after day of reporting, of sort of cataloging what has happened just in our reality compared to what the fantasy was, has brought me deeply back down to Earth, literally.

And now I kind of have this totally different perspective on sort of Mars exploration, both sort of the practical reasons why we may or may not want to do it. And then I think the core of what you’re saying is there’s a lot of ethical issues here that we haven’t even resolved and may never be able to resolve if this is the thing that we are set on doing. So, you know, I mean, obviously there are technical issues that need to be overcome in terms of the gravity, the radiation, the lack of atmosphere, the poison in the soil.

You know, the list goes on and on and on. The distance communication, the lack of resources available to the people living there, so on and so forth. So, you know, we’re approaching this now from a not can we, because I think, you know, I think we can both make the case that we can.

If we really want to have humans be on Mars and we’re willing to expend a lot of resources, we could pull this off.

[Dr. Pamela Gay]
And they’re willing to accept the high doses of radiation that they’re going to be. Oh, yeah.

[Fraser Cain]
Well, this comes to the ethical issue, right? So we’ll get into that. I mean, I think, you know, if we’re willing to spend hundreds of billions, if not trillions of dollars a year from the Earth’s economy, we could make some existence on Mars happen.

If the people who go will be experiencing high degrees of radiation, maybe that’s a personal choice. And then there are issues with future generations who might be born and try to live on Mars. So let’s kind of break down the ethical issues bit by bit by bit.

And I’m going to start with Earth, because I think that’s where this all starts, is that I think most people vastly underestimate what this is going to cost and what sacrifice planet Earth is going to need to make to have even just a handful of people live on Mars.

[Dr. Pamela Gay]
And I have to admit that last week I had a, oh, oh, no moment of doing back of the envelope calculations that turned into spreadsheet calculations. I noticed in the past couple of Starship launches that they talked about wanting to do up to 10 launches a day, that they were planning to produce a Starship every eight hours. And I was like, that is all ludicrous.

But I didn’t pay any real attention to it because SpaceX has lots of things and you wait for them to actually do it.

[Fraser Cain]
Yeah. And sometimes things actually happen.

[Dr. Pamela Gay]
Right. And then what got me was I saw someone post a picture of that jellyfish light pattern that appears in the sky when Starship is firing its engines. And underneath it was a clearly happy and cheerful and excited post along the lines of, just imagine when the sky is full of this happening every few minutes during the Mars windows.

And I was like, wait, what?

[Fraser Cain]
Wait, no, thank you.

[Dr. Pamela Gay]
And so I took a step back and I went to the SpaceX website and I was like, what are they planning here? And their plan is to launch literally thousands of Starships across multiple two month long launch windows to Mars. And if you do the back of the envelope math on 1,000 launches per two month window, for each of those windows, you have to do 25 launches per day to cover the, and the assumption I’m making is for each one Starship that goes to Mars, there is 19 Starships that’s needed to refuel it.

That is actually a completely middle of the estimation. There are people who have much higher estimations, a few people have lower estimations. So that’s just middle of the road.

So if you assume just to refuel each of the 1,000 that is departing, it’s 25 launches per day.

[Fraser Cain]
That’s 25,000 launches.

[Dr. Pamela Gay]
So you have 25 launches a day. This gets the eight Starships produced per day is what’s actually needed. The steel needed for only the 1,000 that go to Mars is a 10th of a percent of all US steel production, which doesn’t sound like a lot.

It’s a lot. But you’re taking what is a completely recyclable material and just sending it all to Mars. Sure.

Sure. And then on top of that, you have to have the cargo launches and you have to have the crew launches. So those are still in addition to the 25 per day, eight per hour that are getting produced.

And that is a number of launches that current research says our atmosphere cannot sustain.

[Fraser Cain]
Yes. Yeah. Yeah.

And I think like you’re taking them at their word and saying, yeah, what would it be if they did launch 1,000 per Mars window that they were planning on setting up a city of a million people on Mars. But even if you don’t take them at that point, like if you go the other end of the spectrum and say, what is the minimum viable resources required to have a colony on Mars that is permanently inhabited? Like maybe it’s a few hundred people.

Like maybe you’re looking at something like a McMurdo station in Antarctica, maybe 1,000 people. I mean, that costs hundreds of millions of dollars to sustain. And that’s here on planet earth.

You’re looking at tens of billions, if not trillions of dollars a year to sustain this. And that is money that could be spent on the economy in other ways. So as you said, you’re sending steel, you’re sending material, and those are relatively low.

Now, people are going to make the argument, well, the price is going to come down. Well, prove it. Right now, the cost to land a payload on the surface of the moon and not even bring it back is in the hundreds of millions of dollars, which is significantly cheaper than it used to be.

And then the Chinese are bringing missions back and they’re in the whatever low billions, hundreds of millions to bring stuff back from the moon. But to go to Mars is sort of next level. Right now, we’re looking at tens of millions of dollars per kilogram to land payloads onto the surface of Mars.

So we do not have the technology currently to deploy that stuff to the surface of Mars. And so right now, if you actually want to live up to that dream, you’re going to have to contribute a huge chunk of Earth’s resources to this process.

[Dr. Pamela Gay]
So while also being destructive to the environment, it’s both sides. Yeah.

[Fraser Cain]
While being destructive to the planet. Yes. Yeah.

And a bunch of those starships are going to burn up when they re-enter the Earth’s atmosphere. They’re going to contribute. It’s like a new worry that we actually didn’t even talk about or we didn’t even know about.

Now, it looks like there’s a high degree of catalytic metals that are being deposited in the Earth’s atmosphere that contribute to atmospheric chemistry and might actually, and that although, you know, we’re getting 100 tons of material from space, we’re producing, we’re putting a lot more of a very specific kind of metal into the atmosphere that is potentially harmful to the ozone layer. So exactly. So we are going to, if we try to live up to the dream, we are going to do, we’re going to have to sort of lose our economy to a certain extent and do damage to our natural environment to make this possible.

[Dr. Pamela Gay]
Yeah.

[Fraser Cain]
Right. And, and, and, and what we get from it is nothing. Right.

Except for some science and knowing that there are people now living on Mars, right? There’s no economy. There’s no value that has returned to Earth for this expense.

[Dr. Pamela Gay]
And it’s like data centers. It’s something that takes up a whole lot of resources without producing a whole lot of jobs. And the, the trade off between allowing people to improve their own state of life versus the notch down, it takes the entire world there.

There’s no way I’ve been able to find to balance those two, especially when you start factoring in, we’re talking about using methane fuels.

[Fraser Cain]
Yeah. So let’s now talk about the journey. And, you know, you brought this up a bit that, that you’re going to spend nine months just getting to Mars and you’re going to be in a radiation environment that is hundreds of times more damaging than what you experience just on a normal day, living down here on the surface of the earth, protected by the atmosphere and the magnetosphere.

You know, what are the implications of that?

[Dr. Pamela Gay]
The most concerning one is we know that being in outer space affects vision. It’s a combination of zero G does bad things to eyeballs. And just like taking a high energy ray to a CCD can blow out a pixel, constant radiation exposure to your eyeballs will ruin your eyeballs.

[Fraser Cain]
But that, I mean, just, I mean, radiation, the eyeballs is one thing, but you’re getting radiation over your whole body.

[Dr. Pamela Gay]
Right. But, but at a certain level, having a bunch of blind people on Mars trying to set up a colony, it seems like a really bad idea. So I’m just going to baseline it at let’s not disable people and then ask them to do the hardest thing possible.

[Fraser Cain]
Sure, sure. But I, I mean, yeah, if there’s a catastrophic, like if this is a really bad solar storm, they’re dead.

[Dr. Pamela Gay]
They’re all dead. Yeah.

[Fraser Cain]
Yeah. You’ve got a crew, you got a hundred people on board, bad solar storm. And it would, you know, if it moved in the direction of Mars, it would take out all thousands of starships.

[Dr. Pamela Gay]
The flare that went off, I think it was either yesterday or the day before would have been catastrophic. And the issue is these are vehicles that I, we’re not real great at, at protecting all of our electronics. And, and so we do have to harden things, but how are you going to harden that many electronics without something going wrong at some point?

[Fraser Cain]
Yeah.

[Dr. Pamela Gay]
The human body, you can’t just encase it in a Faraday cage.

[Fraser Cain]
Right.

[Dr. Pamela Gay]
And, and so it’s, it’s just layer upon layer of ways that things can go wrong and then factor in that we don’t have a clear understanding of what happens to Mars environment in high radiation.

[Fraser Cain]
Yeah. We’re going to get, we’ll get to that in a second, like just the journey there. I mean, the very worst case scenario is there’s a catastrophic solar storm.

Like we’ve seen these happen every couple of years and it takes out the entire fleet that everybody, like literally everybody dies.

[Dr. Pamela Gay]
Yes.

[Fraser Cain]
Right. Because, because everybody experiences a high radiation load.

[Dr. Pamela Gay]
That is not the worst case. The worst case is everyone, but one person dies.

[Fraser Cain]
Maybe. So, so, but, but so now then there is the kind of the inevitable stuff. As you said, there’s issues with the vision.

There’s just an increased radiation load. Like everybody is going to be getting a lifetime’s worth of radiation in a few months and that’s going to increase their chances of getting cancer. Cancer is going to be a very common.

[Dr. Pamela Gay]
Leukemia.

[Fraser Cain]
Yeah. Leukemia. These are going to be thyroid cancer.

These can be very common events on Mars that a much higher percentage of the population on Mars is going to come down with all these different diseases. And then there, and then whatever are the long term downsides of being in microgravity, you know, I think we, we know mostly and know how to deal with many of them. Like they’re going to be working out all the time to prepare themselves.

They’re going to probably have vision problems. Some percentage of people have vision problems downstream. They’ll wear glasses.

They’ll, you know, they’ll, they’ll, you know, so like these, you know, there’s a lot of stuff that we kind of know issues with your brain issues with some of your internal organs, liver, kidney. These are, these are changes in deep space memory. You know, we’ve never put people in deep space for longer than one week.

Right. Right. All of the longterm space exploration by humans so far has been under the protection of the Earth’s magnetosphere.

Only the Apollo missions have sent humans out beyond the magnetosphere and watch what happened to them. We just, we have not performed this experiment. We’ve not gathered enough data. Okay. So now people are landing on Mars and obviously some percentage of these starships are going to fail and they’re going to crash onto Mars. So that would be bad. A hundred people per starship that is fails its landing.

But then let’s, you know, let’s talk about the people that survive. You’ve got, you’ve got a Mars and this is their home. Now this is where they live.

Yes. What are the ethical issues for this now?

[Dr. Pamela Gay]
So, so you, you have three big things you have to worry about. One is people tend to be greedy and lazy. And how do you select a crew that is made up of people who won’t at some point decide, yeah, I’m just done.

[Fraser Cain]
And well, I mean, in theory, like basically it says there’s going to be return flights possible. So if you say you’re done, you hop in your return spaceship and you come home.

[Dr. Pamela Gay]
Okay.

[Fraser Cain]
And if you’re a bad person, they, they vote you off the Island. They put you in a starship and they send you home.

[Dr. Pamela Gay]
Like, I think that feels like, you know, I, I, I keep thinking back to the rules of the high seas, where if you didn’t do what was necessary, you were sent down the gangplank.

[Fraser Cain]
Sure. Yeah. If you’re a very bad person, they’d throw you overboard.

[Dr. Pamela Gay]
So, so you’re looking to put together a society of people who are in many cases, not going to fully comprehend how shockingly difficult it’s going to be, how shockingly unhealthy everyone is going to end up being. And the amount of never ending work is something we saw playing Oregon Trail growing up. If you are of the right age and you witnessed the dying of dysentery, but even the people on, on the Oregon Trail got to pause on Sunday and there’s no resting when you’re in an environment that’s trying to kill you constantly.

[Fraser Cain]
Yeah. I have a couple of kind of anecdotes on this. One is talking with astronauts about their life on the International Space Station and how much they have to work.

[Dr. Pamela Gay]
Yeah.

[Fraser Cain]
That, that they have to spend many hours every day just maintaining their strength and their, their cardiovascular system. They, they run nonstop and they lift weights. And I think they do two to three hours of exercise every single day.

[Dr. Pamela Gay]
Yeah. And it’s a lot of elastic more than weights just because elastic is, is easier.

[Fraser Cain]
I mean, they have a weight machine. They literally have this sort of cool Smith, Smith machine they can, they can lift with. And then they spend hours maintaining the, the equipment that’s keeping them alive.

And then they perform a bunch of science experiments. And then if they’re lucky, they have a few minutes of personal time before they collapse and they begin the whole process all over again. And they know they’ve got a nine month, six month trip in space that, you know, they’re there for a reason.

They get it done. They come back home, but the people going to Mars, this is their whole life forever. Yeah.

Yeah. And then the other thing is this TV show called Alone, which is often filmed here on Vancouver Island where I live, which, you know, was recently voted as one of the best islands in the world. And, and they’re there in November when it’s kind of hard to, to find food and they’re alone by themselves trying to take care of themselves.

And they all go crazy. They all get sad, lonely, and they want nothing more than to return home. But when you’re on Mars, even if that starship is waiting, you’re looking at six months or so, whatever, before you can actually make that return journey.

So I think all the comforts of home, it’s exciting. They’re all excited in the beginning and then the reality sets in and they’re all really sad and wish they could, they could come home. And so there’s like this, just this cognitive load.

But I think, you know, one of the bigger issues that we’re not even dealing with is, yet, is what if they want to have kids?

[Dr. Pamela Gay]
Yeah. And, and so there’s two sides to that. One is we don’t know what additional biological issues there’s going to be because there is increasing evidence that once upon a time, long, long ago, Mars might’ve had microbial life.

We don’t know what it’s chemistry. We don’t know what it’s former biology. We don’t know what any of that will do in terms of influencing things like plant growth, anything like that.

This, this is an entirely new environment where for all we know, the specific chemistry that exists on Mars causes new kinds of birth defects that we don’t know about because that specific chemistry isn’t something that even in the most industrially polluted places people get attached to. Then add onto that, we already know that things don’t form right in lower gravity, in microgravity, in orbit on the international space station. They’ve had issues with embryos not forming skin and that will live rent-free in my brain with me forever.

That was an episode we did years ago, still lives rent-free in my brain.

[Fraser Cain]
Yes. And still nobody has done the next experiments.

[Dr. Pamela Gay]
Because it’s too scary and ethically wrong.

[Fraser Cain]
I know, but nobody’s done like, let’s set up a centrifuge and let’s see what happens in one sixth gravity. And let’s see what happens in simulated Mars gravity. Like we have literally no idea, none about what’s going to happen to human gestation in Mars gravity.

Might be fine, might be no skin.

[Dr. Pamela Gay]
And the problem with saying, oh, we’ll just mandate they don’t have children is human beings don’t work like that generally. And life finds a way. I mean, a lot of this goes back to a different Jurassic Park quote.

Your scientists were so preoccupied with whether or not they could, they didn’t stop to think if they should is another Ian, the Jeff Goldblum character.

[Fraser Cain]
The chaos mathematician. I mean, I think if you knew that there was a 100% chance that any child born on Mars would have such serious health issues that they would be non-viable or would live in pain and torment for their life, for their short lives, you would make it impossible. Everyone would have to be sterilized, I guess, going to Mars.

Like that’s crazy. Um, and if it was perfectly safe, then you would be like, okay, well, this is a problem, but the, but the problem is that we don’t know the answer to this question. Nobody has performed these experiments.

Nobody has, has taken mammals through gestation in various simulated versions of gravity. These are tests that need to be done. And we don’t know the answer to these questions.

And then the next issue is sort of like what life would be like. Now, we’re sort of giving this Mark Watney-esque from The Martian constant striving for basic survival. You’re probably living underground because you can’t be out on the surface to get more of that dose of the radiation.

You’ve already had a lifetime’s worth of radiation, so you’re going to spend every moment thinking about the time you spend outside. Probably you can’t grow food out in the open, even under a greenhouse.

[Dr. Pamela Gay]
It’s going to be moon is a harsh mistress style life where you’re underground in tubes. Your only source of light is artificial. Your only plants are grown in some sort of inside growing system.

[Fraser Cain]
Yeah.

[Dr. Pamela Gay]
Yeah.

[Fraser Cain]
Yeah. That’s your life. And so you sort of go back to that alone idea like you’re living underground.

You can’t go outside.

[Dr. Pamela Gay]
If you’re someone with seasonal affective disorder, not for you. Yeah.

[Fraser Cain]
You feed the algae bioreactor and you eat the slop that comes out. Yeah. So that is very tough.

Now, maybe people are going to think that this sounds like a great idea and maybe they’re going to want to do it. I don’t know. People have been able to weather hardships in exploration on Earth before, but often there’s another side to that.

It’s a tunnel and you get to come out the other side where now you’re living on a tropical paradise and you’re able to survive.

[Dr. Pamela Gay]
And this is where there’s so many post-apocalyptic sci-fi shows. Silo is one that I believe is on Apple TV that is the world has self-destroyed itself and everyone is living in underground silos where they have to completely match birth and death. And you see similar things in Fallout and all these different post-apocalyptic.

This would be that future without needing the apocalypse. You have chosen this future.

[Fraser Cain]
Yes. Self-inflicted sort of apocalypse.

[Dr. Pamela Gay]
And there’s another ethical side. Do we do this before the scientists have figured out all the things that we need to figure out before we pollute it with our own biology? Is there life on Mars?

Is there a fossil record we need to explore? I’m reminded of all the places that require a paleontologist and or an archaeologist to be on site during big digs to make sure that history isn’t destroyed. And do you see any of the commercial agencies planning that kind of, let’s make sure no fossil is destroyed?

[Fraser Cain]
Yeah. Yeah. I mean, I think this is a situation where finding life on Mars would be one of the most dramatic discoveries in human history.

And it would tell us a tremendous amount about how common life is in the universe, how it evolved separately, or if they’re related. And yet if we go without really thinking about our impact on the environment there, then we’re just going to release various kinds of bacteria into the environment that is going to attempt to colonize those places. Like, what do you know?

You dig down and you find water bears, right? Thanks for the trip. Thanks for the new environment.

So that is another issue that we may lose track of the life, the life that was there before humanity arrived. And that is a, you know, it feels like it’s kind of an inevitability. But it would be nice to have a chance to do lots of science before we bring the earth life.

And then, of course, people are thinking about if we can terraform it, right? That takes it to the next level. You’re turning this planet that was, you know, if it does have life, has this sort of set environment and you’re turning it into something completely different for us.

Yeah. And then a lot of people are like, I don’t care, whatever.

[Dr. Pamela Gay]
I want to be able to answer all the questions before I destroy the data.

[Fraser Cain]
Yeah. At the very least, let’s get the science done before we destroy the data. So I think, you know, there’s like a certain percentage of people who are going to go like, I never want to listen to Astronomy Cast again.

[Dr. Pamela Gay]
It’s true. It’s true.

[Fraser Cain]
Yeah. Which is fine, you know? And so for those of you who are like on the fence and they’re like, oh, I really hate what Fraser and Pamela are saying, I want to throw you a bone, which is that for me, and I don’t know about you, Pamela, but for me, this is not about whether or not we will or should colonize other worlds.

I think we should. And I think that we will. The issue is the timeframe.

The issue is where we are today on the technological curve towards this being a thing that we can do ethically and safely. And, you know, the analogy that I always use is, you look at a place like Phoenix, there’s whatever, 5, 3 million, 5 million people living in Phoenix in an environment that was never meant to support that many human beings. But we have infrastructure.

We have technology. We have highways. We have electrical grids.

We have air conditioning systems. We have transportation networks. Like we have, we have made it so that living in a place like Phoenix is eminently doable with our, with our level of technology.

We need that infrastructure. We need a way to safe. We need a way to safely transport people into space.

We need a way to safely transfer people through space to another world. We need to be able to make sure we can land on that other world. We need to be able to know the answer to the question of low gravity.

We need to be able to combat and stop radiation from space. We need to be able to manufacture resources that are required locally at scale. We need to be able to have new technologies that handle the temperature, the lack of atmosphere, the perchlorates in the soil, all of this kind of stuff.

It is infrastructure that we’ve not built yet. And that, that it, and so it’s not about whether or not this is going to happen for me. This is about when this is going to happen.

And I think a lot of people are getting very frustrated and angry that this isn’t happening tomorrow. And yet this humanity, as we continue to progress, we will inevitably reach this place where these are things that we do easily. We’re like, oh yeah, of course.

Hey, let’s just set up a city on Mars because that’s easy for us to do. We’ve got the, all the infrastructure. Let’s just do it.

And maybe we’re like, yeah, it sounds like a great idea. No problem. Right.

But we’re not there yet. And we get there by building infrastructure, developing our technology, understanding biology, understanding how, how, how close ecosystems work here on earth and in space as we live longer, close to earth, live on the moon, practice our techniques. Near earth asteroids.

Near earth asteroids, develop all of that infrastructure that then living on a place like Mars will be just the natural outcome of that. So I still believe that we will eventually live on Mars. I just think it’s going to happen in a few hundred years later than, than, you know, others who are a lot more enthusiastic to.

And that’s where I think my position has changed from the guy who was so excited about the case for Mars has now sort of tuned my enthusiasm to a more realistic timeframe.

[Dr. Pamela Gay]
I really want to see fossil hunting on Mars with high mass laboratories being possible, but I don’t care if there’s a human settlement tied to it. I just want to know if there’s actually fossils there. That’s what I want to know.

[Fraser Cain]
Sure. Yeah. Yeah.

Like we have all these scientific questions we’d love to know the answer to. And you know, people say, oh, should we live on Mars? I always have to distinguish like, should we have a research station on Mars?

Absolutely. Right away. Tomorrow.

Let’s get going on that. Should we have people living on the moon? A research station on the moon?

Yes, absolutely. Tomorrow. Let’s get going.

Should we have people like live and grow and, and, and live their whole lives on Mars only when it’s feasible and we won’t know until it’s feasible.

[Dr. Pamela Gay]
Yeah. Yeah.

[Fraser Cain]
All right. So hopefully that, yeah. So, so now we just, you may disagree with me, not you, Pamela, but you, the audience.

[Dr. Pamela Gay]
Yes.

[Fraser Cain]
You, the audience may disagree with me and that’s fine. But I, I hope that we can have an argument about timeframe and not about, you know, we’re not having an argument about whether or not it’ll happen and should happen. It’s about when it’s going to happen.

[Dr. Pamela Gay]
Yeah. Thanks Pamela. Thank you, Fraser.

And thank you so much to all of the folks out there on Patreon. This show is made possible by our community on patreon.com slash astronomy cast. This week.

We’d like to thank the following $10 and up patrons, Abraham Cattrell, Alex Rain, Andrew Stevenson, Arno DeGroot, Bart Flaherty, Benjamin Mueller, Bresnik, Bruce Amazine, Claudia Mastriani, Dale Alexander, David Bogarty, Diane Philippon, Dr. Jeff Collins, Iran Zegev, Felix Gut, Frodo Tanenbaugh, Glenn Phelps, Greg Davis, Hannah Tackery, Janelle, Jeanette Wink, Jim Schooler, Joe Holstein, John Thays, Justin Proctor, Katie and Ulyssa, Christian Golding, Laura Kettleson, Lana Spencer, Mark Schneidler, Matthew Horstman, Michael Purcell, Mike Dog, Nate Detweiler, Papa Hot Dog, Paul L. Hayden, Philip Walker, Robby the Dog with the Dot, Reuben McCarthy, Sandra Stanz, Scott Briggs, Zege Kemmler, Stephen Miller, The Brain, Tim Girish, Tushar Nakini, Will Feld, and Zero Chill. Thank you all so very much.

And we have, as of tomorrow, I think, for AstronomyCast, access to quips and all the new Patreon features. So check it out. You have to install Patreon on your mobile device, though.

[Fraser Cain]
All right. Thanks, everyone. And we will see you next week.

[Dr. Pamela Gay]
Bye-bye, everyone.

Live Show

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Models help scientists understand everything from the particles that make up the universe to massive superstructures of galaxies at the beginning of time. But sometimes they model more mundane, though perhaps even more complex, features - including the course of human civilization. A new paper by Thomas Leppard of the International Archaeological Research Institute and his co-authors, all of whom are also archeologists, propose applying a model of how humans expanded to the different islands across the Pacific Ocean during their early migration to what glean insights into how humanity should manage our colonization of space.

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There is growing evidence that our reliance on generative AI tools is reducing our ability to think clearly and critically, but it doesn’t have to be that way

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Space dust provides more than just awe-inspiring pictures like the Pillars of Creation. It can provide the necessary materials to build everything from planets to asteroids. But what it actually looks like, especially in terms of its “porosity” (i.e. how many holes it has) has been an area of debate for astrochemists for decades. A new paper from Alexey Potapov of Friedrich Schiller University Jena and his co-authors suggest that the dust that makes up so much of the universe might be “spongier” than originally thought.

The electric cars of the Formula E racing championship can accelerate faster than Formula 1 cars and their top speeds are catching up – but battery capacity would let them down in a head-to-head

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Kendra Pierre-Louis steps in as interim host and dives into the science behind why some foods—especially mayonnaise—can gross us out.

Video: 00:04:49

English: Paxi and the Start of the Great Space Adventure

Join Paxi on a journey through time! Learn how humans first started exploring space, why countries in Europe teamed up to create the European Space Agency (ESA), what ESA does today, and how kids can be part of the adventure. 

Czech: Paxi a Začátek velkého vesmírného dobrodružství

Vydejte se s Paxi na cestu časem! Dozvíte se, jak lidé začali zkoumat vesmír, proč se evropské země spojily a založily Evropskou kosmickou agenturu (ESA), čím se ESA dnes zabývá a jak se děti mohou zapojit do tohoto dobrodružství. 

Danish: Paxi og begyndelsen på det store rumeventyr

Tag med Paxi på en rejse gennem tiden! Lær, hvordan mennesket begyndte at udforske rummet, hvorfor lande i Europa gik sammen om at oprette Den Europæiske Rumorganisation (ESA), hvad ESA laver i dag, og hvordan børn kan være en del af eventyret. 

Dutch: Paxi en het begin van het grote ruimteavontuur

Ga met Paxi mee op een reis door de tijd! Ontdek hoe mensen voor het eerst de ruimte gingen verkennen, waarom Europese landen samen de Europese Ruimtevaartorganisatie (ESA) hebben opgericht, wat ESA vandaag de dag doet en hoe kinderen deel kunnen uitmaken van dit avontuur. 

Estonian: Paxi ja suure kosmoseseikluse algus

Liitu Paxiga ajarännakule! Õpi, kuidas inimesed hakkasid kosmost uurima, miks Euroopa riigid ühinesid Euroopa Kosmoseagentuuri (ESA) loomiseks, mida ESA täna teeb ja kuidas lapsed saavad sellest seiklusest osa võtta. 

Finnish: Paxi ja suuren avaruusseikkailun alku

Lähde Paxin kanssa matkalle ajassa taaksepäin! Opi, miten ihmiset alkoivat tutkia avaruutta, miksi Euroopan maat perustivat yhdessä Euroopan avaruusjärjestön (ESA), mitä ESA tekee nykyään ja miten lapset voivat osallistua seikkailuun.

French: Paxi et le début de la grande aventure spatiale

Rejoignez Paxi dans un voyage à travers le temps ! Découvrez comment les humains ont commencé à explorer l'espace, pourquoi les pays européens se sont associés pour créer l'Agence spatiale européenne (ESA), ce que fait l'ESA aujourd'hui et comment les enfants peuvent participer à l'aventure. 

German: Paxi und der Beginn des großen Weltraumabenteuers

Begleite Paxi auf einer Reise durch die Zeit! Erfahre, wie die Menschen begannen, den Weltraum zu erforschen, warum sich europäische Länder zusammengeschlossen haben, um die Europäische Weltraumorganisation (ESA) zu gründen, was die ESA heute macht und wie Kinder Teil dieses Abenteuers werden können. 

Greek: Ο Πάξι και η αρχή της μεγάλης διαστημικής περιπέτειας

Ελάτε μαζί με τον Paxi σε ένα ταξίδι στο χρόνο! Μάθετε πώς οι άνθρωποι άρχισαν να εξερευνούν το διάστημα, γιατί οι χώρες της Ευρώπης συνεργάστηκαν για να δημιουργήσουν τον Ευρωπαϊκό Οργανισμό Διαστήματος (ESA), τι κάνει σήμερα ο ESA και πώς τα παιδιά μπορούν να συμμετάσχουν σε αυτή την περιπέτεια. 

Hungrarian: Paxi és a nagy űrkaland kezdete

Csatlakozz Paxihoz egy időutazásra! Tudj meg, hogyan kezdték el az emberek az űr kutatását, miért álltak össze az európai országok az Európai Űrügynökség (ESA) létrehozására, mit csinál ma az ESA, és hogyan vehetnek részt a gyerekek is ebben a kalandban. 

Italian: Paxi e l’inizio della grande avventura nello Spazio

Unisciti a Paxi in un viaggio attraverso il tempo! Scopri come gli esseri umani hanno iniziato a esplorare lo spazio, perché i paesi europei hanno collaborato per creare l'Agenzia Spaziale Europea (ESA), cosa fa oggi l'ESA e come i bambini possono partecipare a questa avventura. 

Norwegian: Paxi og starten på det store romeventyret

Bli med Paxi på en reise gjennom tiden! Lær hvordan menneskene først begynte å utforske verdensrommet, hvorfor landene i Europa gikk sammen om å opprette Den europeiske romorganisasjonen (ESA), hva ESA gjør i dag, og hvordan barn kan være med på eventyret. 

Polish: Paxi i początek wielkiej kosmicznej przygody

Dołącz do Paxi w podróży przez czas! Dowiedz się, jak ludzie zaczęli odkrywać kosmos, dlaczego kraje europejskie połączyły siły, aby stworzyć Europejską Agencję Kosmiczną (ESA), czym zajmuje się obecnie ESA i jak dzieci mogą wziąć udział w tej przygodzie. 

Portuguese: Paxi e o início da grande aventura espacial

Junte-se a Paxi numa viagem pelo tempo! Saiba como os humanos começaram a explorar o espaço, por que os países da Europa se uniram para criar a Agência Espacial Europeia (ESA), o que a ESA faz hoje e como as crianças podem fazer parte dessa aventura. 

Romanian: Paxi și începutul marii aventuri spațiale

Alătură-te lui Paxi într-o călătorie în timp! Află cum au început oamenii să exploreze spațiul, de ce țările din Europa s-au asociat pentru a crea Agenția Spațială Europeană (ESA), ce face ESA astăzi și cum pot copiii să participe la această aventură. 

Slovenian: Paxi in začetek velike vesoljske pustolovščine

Pridružite se Paxiju na potovanju skozi čas! Spoznajte, kako so ljudje začeli raziskovati vesolje, zakaj so se evropske države združile in ustanovile Evropsko vesoljsko agencijo (ESA), kaj ESA počne danes in kako lahko otroci sodelujejo v tej pustolovščini. 

Spanish: Paxi y el comienzo de la gran aventura espacial

¡Acompaña a Paxi en un viaje a través del tiempo! Descubre cómo los seres humanos comenzaron a explorar el espacio, por qué los países europeos se unieron para crear la Agencia Espacial Europea (ESA), qué hace la ESA hoy en día y cómo los niños pueden formar parte de la aventura. 

Swedish: Paxi & början på det stora rymdäventyret

Följ med Paxi på en resa genom tiden! Lär dig hur människan började utforska rymden, varför länderna i Europa gick samman för att bilda Europeiska rymdorganisationen (ESA), vad ESA gör idag och hur barn kan vara med på äventyret. 

Back in 2009, astronomers using the Fermi Gamma-ray Space Telescope noticed that there was a lot more gamma-ray light coming from the center of the Milky Way than might otherwise be expected given the objects there. Since then, two theories have appeared to explain this Galactic Center Excess (GCE) as it’s become known. One theory posits that the extra gamma rays are created by thousands of unseen milli-second pulsars (MSPs) in the Galactic center, while the other suggests that dark matter annihilating itself could also be the source. A new paper from Moortis Muru and hisco-authors at the Leibniz Institute for Astrophysics Potsdam (AIP) hasn’t necessarily solved the conundrum, but does level the playing field between the two theories again.