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So it’s been decades since we’ve seen a bright comet in the sky. And actually there was a pair — Hale-Bopp and Hyakutake. And then, silence! And unmet promises by the Universe to give us a bright comet. Comets are unpredictable, and they arrive precisely when they intend to. Is it time again for a bright comet? If you asked us in January if 2025 was going to have any outstanding comets would fly through the Solar System, we would have (and we did) say “no.” And we were wrong. Comets are fickle, unpredictable, and like to do exactly what we didn’t predict.

Show Notes

• What makes a great comet
• Why predictions are hard
• Historical highs & hopes
  • Hyakutake & Hale-Bopp set the bar
  • Halley’s best (1910) and next return in 2061.
• Current/near-term watchlist (Fall 2025):
  • C/2025 A6 (Lemon)
  • 2025 R2 (SWAN)
• Big units: 2014 UN271 (Bernardinelli–Bernstein)

Transcript

Fraser Cain: 

This is a test. Welcome to Astronomy Cast, your weekly facts-based journey through the cosmos, where we help you understand not only what we know, but how we know what we know. I’m Fraser Cain, I’m the publisher of Universe Today.

With me as always is Dr. Pamela Gay, a senior scientist for the Planetary Science Institute and the director of Cosmic Quest. Hey Pamela, how are you doing?

Dr. Pamela Gay: 

I am doing well. Our sights are still a bit on the struggle bus with the onslaught of scrapers, but I seem to have things running slow, but not crashing. And I’ll take slow and not crashing and continue to work on it.

So thank you everyone for your patience. Yeah, this was not what AI ever talks about doing to people.

Fraser Cain: 

Where are my Terminators? I would prefer Terminators over them slowly degrading our website service. Yeah, at least the Terminators are honest with you, as opposed to sneakily pretending to be Chrome browsers that are just browsing your website thousands of times a second.

So we did something unusual this week over on my YouTube channel. We released, instead of doing our normal news roundup with Space Bytes, we did a roundup of news about Comet 3i Atlas. And it was a very different episode, something unlike we’ve never done before, which was that I went very carefully through every single paper that has come out about 3i Atlas over the last three months.

Dr. Pamela Gay: 

There’s some doozies in there.

Fraser Cain: 

Yeah. The ones that I felt were scientifically valid, all of them in archive. Okay, fair.

Dr. Pamela Gay: 

Thank you.

Fraser Cain: 

And then we connected it all together into a video, but it’s just reference after reference. You could see us going through the paper, quotes. It was footnoted.

It was like an academic journal of its own. Normally, I’m very much fast and loose about the news. In this case, I was saying the names of the principal investigator.

We were providing a link to the paper on archive. We were showing it. We brought receipts for this episode.

Dr. Pamela Gay: 

That’s so important.

Fraser Cain: 

Yeah, because there’s so much AI slop out there. I think if you want a very science-based reference about 3i Atlas, definitely check out the episode that we did this week over on our YouTube channel, the Universe Today YouTube channel. But it’s also sent out in my newsletter.

We have it on the podcast in all the places, but I hope people really enjoyed that. It took me about four times as long as it normally takes me to do a Space Bytes because it was so carefully, meticulously researched. It felt very weird to do the episode.

I thought it was just going to be a disaster, but then Anton, our editor, he just nailed it. It’s a beautiful video, great graphics, lots of really cool stuff, and also really meaty scientifically. Definitely check that out.

I’m really proud of what we did.

Dr. Pamela Gay: 

Yeah. Some of the stuff you do is must watch. That one is getting added to the list of things that I must watch.

Fraser Cain: 

So it’s been decades since we’ve seen a bright comet in the sky. Actually, there was a pair, Hale-Bopp and Hyakutake, and then silence and unmet promises by the Universe to give us a bright comet. Comets are unpredictable, and they arrive precisely when they intend to.

Is it time again for a bright comet? We’ll talk about it in a second, but it’s time for a break, and we’re back. So, Pamela, is it time?

Are we due? Is this it? Is this our moment?

Dr. Pamela Gay: 

I don’t think we’re going to get a Hyakutake or Hale-Bopp, and this makes me sad because those two were my company at the end of undergrad, the beginning of graduate school. Yeah.

Fraser Cain: 

I mean, it’s sad that it’s been so long, 26 years?

Dr. Pamela Gay: 

Yeah.

Fraser Cain: 

27 years? There are people watching this episode, people listening to this podcast, that were not born when there was a bright comet in the sky.

Dr. Pamela Gay: 

Yeah.

Fraser Cain: 

Yeah, but what about McNaught? What about Comet Swan? What about Comet Lemon?

Those are nothing. Those are garbage. Those are meaningless.

You don’t know what a bright comet looks like when you stand outside, and it has a tail that stretches for 20 degrees in the sky, that you can see it as the only object when the Sun has gone down, that it just is there night after night like a familiar companion. You go to dark skies, and you just marvel at it. You take pictures of it with a pocket camera, and it still looks amazing.

Dr. Pamela Gay: 

Yeah.

Fraser Cain: 

The universe has just been, for a quarter century, nothing. I’m outraged.

Dr. Pamela Gay: 

I know. I know. Seriously, folks, unless you saw it, it’s impossible to imagine.

I was a baby grad student for Hale-Bopp, and the first night, I was using the McDonald Observatory 30-inch, which is kind of nestled into the side of the mountain. The person who was teaching me how to use it, Philip McQueen, he was like, just hold on until 5 a.m., because I had to drive all day, then I was going to observe with him all night. It was like being awake for 24 hours required for your education.

I was just melting into the desk. At 5 a.m., he’s like, okay, go outside and look. I opened the door from the dome, and straight in front of me, taking up a good 30 degrees of the sky, is Hale-Bopp.

Up to the left are the McDonald Observatory, 107-inch and 82-inch. They’re reflecting off of them the entire horizon of thunderstorms that are off in the distance. Then straight overhead, like you were in a planetarium, was the Milky Way.

It was this moment of, if you showed this in a planetarium, people wouldn’t think it was real. We saw that for months.

Fraser Cain: 

Months. Then we saw it again. I think it’s really important.

Pamela’s describing 30 degrees in the sky. Take your hand out at arm’s length, put your fingers out as far as they’re going to go, measure the bottom of your thumb to the top of your finger, and it’s more than that. That’s 25 degrees.

It’s bigger than that. Imagine that. Hold your arm out and imagine seeing a comet, bright comet, on the horizon, high up in the sky, that is just monstrous.

The problem is that we have to get pictures. People take amazing pictures with their telescopes, but that’s not what you see with your eyes. When Hakutake and Hale-Bopp were here, that’s what you saw with your eyes.

You didn’t need a camera. A telescope was of no benefit because it didn’t fit. It was so big.

It’s madness. Anytime people are like, yeah, but what about this comet? It is unacceptable.

The universe can do better. It knows it, and I accept nothing less than the best.

Dr. Pamela Gay: 

We need a comet 1729 P1. This was a comet that reached magnitude negative three. It is the brightest comet ever on record, although there are arguments that the Great Comet of 1882 might be even brighter.

Fraser Cain: 

You could read your newspaper to a comet that bright.

Dr. Pamela Gay: 

Yeah, and what’s amazing is because these are related to how close we were to them, there’s always that every single time we pass through the tail of a comet when there’s a shower, there’s this moment of, ah, but the comet could have just gone through and wouldn’t that be amazing? And this is what I want, but we don’t have any periodic comments that are due to do that anytime soon.

Fraser Cain: 

All right. So let’s set this up then. What is it going to take?

What are the confluence of factors that make a comet great versus one that is not great?

Dr. Pamela Gay: 

So a truly great comet has to have a number of different things. It has to be near the sun and the earth at about the same time, but not so close to the sun that we can’t see it. So you want this angle between looking from the earth to the comet to the sun, you want the comet earth sun angle to be greater than 20.

Fraser Cain: 

Right. And ideally you want the comet on the other side of the earth from the sun and close.

Dr. Pamela Gay: 

Yeah. Yeah. That is absolutely ideal.

But at least 30 degrees away. So greater so that it’s behind you.

Fraser Cain: 

And the, and the problem with that story is, is that comets get exciting. Comets get big tails when they’re close to the sun. It, and think about how hard it is to see mercury, right?

Mercury is close to this is always interior to us. We’re always having to look close to the sun to be able to see mercury. Very few people have even ever seen mercury because it’s close to the sun.

And so the comments are usually at their best when they’re close to the sun.

Dr. Pamela Gay: 

Right. Right. And so close to the sun, close to the earth at the same time, very important because you also want the object to have a lot of volatiles on its surface that can get exposed to the sun, form a bright coma, form the tails that we see both the ion tail and the tail of stuff and things.

So we’ve been seeing lately comments that have a lot of carbon in them and they become this amazing shade of green as they get ionized. And, and so the colors that we see are due to the composition. So having, it’s not a requirement, but it’s a bonus feature if they can have an interesting set of atoms in them.

Fraser Cain: 

Right.

Dr. Pamela Gay: 

And then you just want the sucker to be big, a little tiny comment that is like 90% volatiles and well-placed isn’t going to be able to put on as large a show as a significantly bigger object that may not have as many volatiles, but has a lot more surface area for those volatiles to be getting active on.

Fraser Cain: 

Give us a sense. What is a small comment versus a big comment? Like the size of the nucleus?

Dr. Pamela Gay: 

I mean, like the biggest comments can be measured in kilometers across. Generally they’re, they’re not going to be that big, but they can get that big.

Fraser Cain: 

Right. So hundreds of meters, two kilometers across. I think the largest comment that we’ve seen, we actually stopped fairly recently was in the tens of kilometers across.

It wasn’t very close. Unfortunately, even three eye Atlas is an interstellar object. It’s five and a half kilometers across.

Like it’s a big object.

Dr. Pamela Gay: 

Yeah. So 2014, I’m going to say this wrong. I, I am so sorry.

Comet 2014 UN 271 Bernard Nenilly Bernstein was a hundred kilometers, 62 miles across. And it is the biggest we know of so far, but we’ve only had the ability to measure their diameters very recently. So, so there’s that factor working against us.

Fraser Cain: 

All right. We’re going to talk about this some more, but it’s time for another break and we’re back. All right.

So we know that we want the comment to come close to the earth, but be on the opposite side of the sun. Ideally we want it to be large so that it’s going to be able to give off a lot of volatiles, be able to, uh, fire material out into space, the bigger, the coma, the longer the tail, the brighter it’s going to be. So then when comments are first discovered, there’s a lot of unpredictability.

Like, like we’ve done this quite a bit where a new comment has been discovered. And then we talk about whether or not it’s going to be great. Why can’t we be more certain?

Dr. Pamela Gay: 

So it turns out that when comments are struggling to stay in one piece, they get super interesting on the sky. So one of the things that can temporarily allow a comment to get super bright, super interesting is just when that sucker completely falls apart, which sometimes comments choose to do. We, we had one back in 2013 that opted to completely fall apart on Thanksgiving day.

So, uh, when you fall apart, you have many different pieces, all producing a lot of volatiles and very temporarily, uh, you can end up with a nice, cool, bright thing, but very temporarily. Uh, there’s also the issue that we don’t know when we first spot a comment, what its size is and what its composition is necessarily. And we make approximations based on how bright it appears.

And if you have a really big comment that has a lot of dark organic molecules on its surface, it will appear smaller than it actually is. If you have a little tiny comment that is super, super shiny, um, or asteroid in the case of the target for Hayabusa2, uh, if you have a small object that appears super shiny, you’re going to assume it’s much bigger. And there’s also the issue of sometimes we just don’t know that a comment is coming.

So when you and I make our predictions every December of what to look forward to the following year, we don’t know about comments that have never been seen before that are going to decide to show up. So, um, we can misidentify how interesting they’re going to be. They can decide, Hey, I’m just going to completely fall apart over here and become super bright.

Um, and then there’s all the ones we just didn’t know were coming.

Fraser Cain: 

And I think the most compelling ones are the ones that are most uncertain. They’re the ones that are going to do a close flyby of the sun. Um, you know, that trajectory you want is it falls down into the inner solar system, just scrapes past the sun and then goes into a trajectory that puts it on, as we mentioned on the opposite side of the earth from the sun, or at least 30 degrees away from the sun.

So you can see it in the, in the sky. The problem is the closer you get to the sun, the more dangerous a path you’re taking. And the sun will tear these comments apart in with its title forces into just a, uh, just a pile of dust.

And, and so you have to sort of thread that needle. You want to get really close to the sun so that you have a lot of volatile elements come off of it, but you don’t want to get so close that you get completely torn apart. And so there’s been examples where comments we’re watching for the comment to complete its, its flight past the sun, where if it survives, then it’s going to be one of the best comments we’ve ever seen.

It’s going to be super bright comment of the century. And we wait and we wait and we wait and no comment comes out the other side of comes around the back of the sun. It was destroyed.

It’s gone. It’s just, it’s, it’s, it’s smashed into little pieces. And then all the volatiles are blown away and maybe a debris cloud comes out the other side, but nothing that’s going to put on that big sky show.

It’s got to hold together and be able to make that journey. And so that’s one of the biggest unknowns is will it survive? It’s it’s travel around the sun.

Dr. Pamela Gay: 

And one of the best apparitions that, uh, many of us heard about either from great grandparents or from music, it turns out was the 1910 apparition of Haley’s comment, uh, that particular year, all the right things occurred. And just after the comment went past earth’s orbit, passing through earth’s orbit, that’s how we get the meteor shower from it. Um, we basically flew through the tail.

And so if you can time it just right, so that it crosses the earth’s orbit as you are heading towards that crossing point. So it ends up behind you in the solar system. Um, you can get an amazing meteor shower that leads to really good music getting written.

Um, the stars fall over Alabama is the song I’m thinking of as well as an amazing comment to view at night. And that double whammy of shooting stars and comment to view is, is just the kind of thing. I for one dream of eventually seeing when some comment we don’t know about currently decides to grace our solar system with the passage.

Fraser Cain: 

All right. We’re going to take another break and we’re back. So you mentioned Halley’s and I wanted to sort of go into that a bit.

So, you know, we have now three classifications of comments. We have the interstellar comments of which we have seen three, maybe three.

Dr. Pamela Gay: 

Yeah.

Fraser Cain: 

Well, I mean, was a moment, a comment was an asteroid.

Dr. Pamela Gay: 

Well, okay. That’s fair. We’ve seen three interstellar objects, right?

Yeah.

Fraser Cain: 

Boris Borisov was very much comment three. Alice is acting very much like a comment, but they come randomly at high velocity. They take whatever journey they’re going to take through the solar system and then they’re gone.

And so far they have not been very bright, hard to spot. Yeah. You have the long period comments, the ones that are entering the inner solar system for the first time in their entire experience that they’ve been out there for 4.5 billion years. They finally through some gravitational interaction, make the long journey. They take a million years to fall down into the inner solar system, zip through, and then they head back out.

Dr. Pamela Gay: 

Yeah.

Fraser Cain: 

Random. We, we have no way to predict them, but we do have the periodic comments, the ones that are, that come on a regular basis. Comet Halley is the most famous of these.

Dr. Pamela Gay: 

Right.

Fraser Cain: 

So when can we expect a good, you know, can we know when there’s going to be good Halley’s comments and bad Halley’s comments to a certain degree?

Dr. Pamela Gay: 

I, a lot of us who were tiny children expecting to see a massive comment because so much went into educating children across at least America. I don’t know what you experienced in the Canadian. Yeah.

You had the same thing. It was just like all of this all of this prep and like kind of math. Yeah.

Yeah. I, I was not impressed and where it gets frustrating is at a certain point, the really cool stuff is also associated with stuff like landslides and disruptions, and we don’t know when those are going to occur. So like Rosetta got some amazing closeup images of Sherry Gary having outbursts related to disruptions of the comment.

And so we, we can run software and you can do this to a certain degree in Stellarium into the future and figure out when will we have passages of the earth right before or after a comment has crossed its orbit. And there’s, there’s none anytime soon. It’s kind of sad.

But at the same time, we keep finding comments that are the non-periodic ones. So currently the periodic ones, we’re going to get some, we’re not going to get anything like Yakutaki or Hale-Bopp from any of the periodic ones anytime soon.

Fraser Cain: 

I mean, our next Haley’s is 61.

Dr. Pamela Gay: 

Yeah.

Fraser Cain: 

20, 2061, we’ll get another flyby. But, but as you said, we probably won’t get what we, what we got in 1910 where we went through the tail.

Dr. Pamela Gay: 

Yeah.

Fraser Cain: 

Where it was very bright. It was, you know, it was a, it was a, it was like things worked out really well for that one. In this case, it’s going to be, I don’t know what the, what the kinematics are for this upcoming version, but, but in general, like there are a bunch of them, but they, but very few come even relatively close to the sky.

You can, you know, every year we get a couple that you can see in the telescope that are periodic comments. They come every 20 years, every thousand years. But it’s the, really, it’s the, the ones that have come from the Oort cloud that are the random, and they can be amazing or they can be mediocre.

Dr. Pamela Gay: 

And, and this is where, when we’re recording this in the fall of 2025, we’re looking at the surprise apparition of comets, Lemon, Swan, and then there’s a bunch of others that are just telescopic ones. But 2025 A6 Lemon is predicted to get maybe as bright as magnitude three by the end of October. Yep.

So I’m looking forward to being able to see that with my unaided eye.

Fraser Cain: 

Yeah, that you can see with your eye. And it’s been a while since we could even see a comet with our eyes. This one, and it’s also well-placed.

Dr. Pamela Gay: 

Yes.

Fraser Cain: 

So, and Swan as well. Swan is really well-placed.

Dr. Pamela Gay: 

2025 R2 Swan.

Fraser Cain: 

Yeah. So Comet Swan is, is up in, is going to sort of pass up through Hercules. So it’s a very high, very easy comet to spot.

Lemon is going to stay very close to the horizon.

Dr. Pamela Gay: 

Yeah.

Fraser Cain: 

So you’re going to need a good view to the West to be able to see it. Both should be visible near the end of October and into early November. You just, you kind of need to know where to look and have some, have some clear skies, but really a pair of binoculars and a small telescope will get you to this place where you can see just a hint, but you should feel angry while you’re looking through the binoculars at these comets and going like really universe, this is the best you can do.

Dr. Pamela Gay: 

Fine. Yeah. Yeah.

And, and even though Hale-Bopp is a periodic one, it has an orbit of hundreds of years. So, uh, yeah, we’re not going to get to see it again.

Fraser Cain: 

Right. In our lifetime.

Dr. Pamela Gay: 

Right.

Fraser Cain: 

Unless we get a robot bodies. Yeah.

Dr. Pamela Gay: 

Yeah.

Fraser Cain: 

But who knows? Right. You could be listening to this episode I’ll be here from now.

And there was the three great comments that happened in December.

Dr. Pamela Gay: 

Exactly. Exactly.

Fraser Cain: 

Right. The three great comments that happened in May and we’re all still talking about them. And that one time that the comet passed right through the atmosphere of the earth, that was scary is, is a thing that can happen.

Dr. Pamela Gay: 

Yeah. Yeah. And, and here’s the thing.

We suspect that perhaps the Tunguska event was, uh, a object that had a large volatile load. So it ended up having an air burst. Um, I’m not saying it’s a comment.

I’m not saying it’s an asteroid. I don’t think that debate will ever be solved, but it had enough volatiles in it to have this amazing air burst that flattened trees in spectacular ways. Um, there, there’s this, this hope that we can get a non-destructive really bright kind of event in our lifetime.

So I’m not saying please hit the earth. I’m saying please blow up in our atmosphere, uh, in places where there are monitoring cameras like they have out in Australia, but not a lot of life forms.

Fraser Cain: 

Are you sure you’re not a supervillain? No. Okay.

Dr. Pamela Gay: 

Um, it’s, it’s entirely possible. I’m also team. Please hit the moon for IR4.

Fraser Cain: 

Right. Yeah. But, but if YR4 hits the moon, causes debris that could take out a bunch of worth it maybe for the, for the mother of all meteor storms.

Dr. Pamela Gay: 

Well, and, and it’s like a 50 meter asteroid. So it will create a roughly one kilometer crater, which is right at the edge of what a human eye can, can make out. It’ll appear as a point source.

And I now need to figure out what will the phase of the moon be at the time of impact? Like, do we have enough information to know that? And if we do, then comes the question of if it’s in the shadow, can we see it?

And I’m actually working out the math for this. I meant to finish doing it yesterday, but we went down a neutron star rabbit hole. Um, so, so patrons, the $5 a month and higher level, we have a new, that takes math series that you can join me for.

Um, so yeah, I can consider doing that. Um, but comets, I mean, the real thing that we just haven’t hit on nearly enough is the more research we do, the more we’re realizing that things like landslides and other disruptions on the surface of these objects, cause them to form comas, cause them to periodically grow tails. It is one of these things where comments being not as structurally sound as one might hope for causes them to put on amazing light shows.

And if they’re big enough and the disruption is small enough, we get to enjoy the light show and have a tail later to see because the comment doesn’t fall apart completely.

Fraser Cain: 

Yeah. So, uh, you know, now we’ve reminded the universe what it’s, what it’s possible, what it’s capable of. It knows how it’s falling short of our expectations and we hope no demand demand demand, uh, better comments.

So how’s that coming universe? Thanks, Pamela.

Dr. Pamela Gay: 

Thank you, Fraser. And thank you to all the patrons who support this show. This show wouldn’t exist without the amazing support of so many of you over on patreon.com slash astronomy cast. This week, we would like to thank in particular, a pronounceable name, Alex rain, Astro Zets, Bart Flaherty, Bresnik, Brian Cagle, Cami Rassian, Cody Rose, Cooper, Daniel loosely, David Gates, Dwight ilk, evil milky, Frank Stewart, Hal McKinney, John Baptiste, Lamar, Jim of Everett, Joe Holstein, John Drake, John M. John days, Justin Proctor, Justin S. Christian Magerholt, Kinsaia Penflanko, Les Howard, Lou Zealand, Lona Spencer, Mark Phillips, Matt Rucker, Matthew Horstman, Matthias Hayden, Michael Wichman, Mike Heisey, Nick Boyd, Olga, Pauline Middlelink, Ruben McCarthy, Ryan Amory, Scott Bieber, Sean Matz, Sergei Monolov, Slug, Stephen Veidt, Stephen Miller, TC Starboy, the mysterious Mark, Time Lord Iroh, Travis C. Porco, Will Field, William Andrews. Thank you all so very much. I read your names pre-recorded.

Rich will insert them. And yeah, that’s a thing I do now.

Fraser Cain: 

Right. All right. Thanks, everybody.

Thanks, Pamela. And we’ll see you next week.

Dr. Pamela Gay: 

Bye-bye, Fraser. Bye-bye, everyone.

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